What To Expect In Tonight's POTUS Debate

Biden vs Trump. The topics, the jabs, and the glaring absences.

Never before in United States history has a Presidential race featured an incumbent with a 36% approval rating facing a challenger with 34 felony convictions, and three more criminal trials on deck. And tonight, they debate. Here’s what to expect.

Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Credit: AP

Tonight’s debate, the first of two, will cover an array of topics from two men reviving their 2020 race. In my analysis I share the topics I believe CNN moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash will cover and who will emerge victorious on that topic, what jabs each candidate will take against the other, and what glaring absences will remain to the detriment of the American people.

The Topics

Abortion

Donald Trump continues to brag that he’s the reason why Roe was overturned. Indeed, he appointed three of the right wing justices who voted to undo a half century of precedent (after promising not to do so during their confirmation hearings). President Biden will continue to commit to protecting reproductive health access and will promise that when reelected, he will work to codify abortion into law. More than 72% of Americans support comprehensive abortion access and every time abortion has been on the ballot, it has won. Trump is in trouble on this one.

• Winner: Biden

Immigration

Polling shows that on immigration, more Americans trust Donald Trump than they do Joe Biden. Perhaps this is because while President Biden ran on condemning Donald Trump’s asylum restrictions and deportation policies, he’s since largely adopted those same policies in his own administration. These aren’t my words, it’s what the ACLU said in explaining why they’re suing Joe Biden for his new immigration policies. Donald Trump’s immigration policies are mortifying. But if Donald Trump is smart, he will win points by reminding voters that even Joe Biden agrees with him.

• Winner: Trump

Economy/Inflation

Despite polling showing that more Americans trust Trump than trust Biden on the economy, Biden has a lot to run on. He can remind voters that Trump was the first President since Herbert Hoover who left office with fewer jobs than when they came in. He can remind voters that inflation is now a more modest 3.3% and his administration is going after the corporate bad actors exploiting consumers. He can remind voters that his time in office has overseen 15 million new jobs, more than any President in history. He can remind voters of his landmark infrastructure bill, the CHIPS Act, and the COVID relief bills, all things that Trump failed to do. The question is whether Americans will believe Biden’s facts or Trump’s tantrums?

• Winner: Tossup

Election Integrity

To this day Donald Trump publicly claims the 2020 election was stolen from him. Notwithstanding him privately admitting he’s lost (on tape), or the fact that every single court that heard his arguments ruled against him, or the fact that every lawyer who argued those cases has plead guilty to pushing the Big Lie—notwithstanding all that—Trump continues to push the Big Lie himself. President Biden will lean into the importance of a democracy, not a dictatorship, and will win independents and moderates in addition to his base.

• Winner: Biden

Palestine and Israel

Both candidates will use this question to show how committed they are to Israel, period. Neither will show much empathy for the 39,000 Palestinians killed and the nearly 2 million Palestinians displaced. Neither will mention Israel’s war crimes, Israel’s refusal to accept the binding UN Security Council resolution for complete ceasefire and release of all hostages, or Israel’s plan to annex the West Bank. Trump will cite his Abraham Accords and Biden will cite that his administration has sent more than $6.5B in military aid to Israel since October 7. Trump will undoubtedly say something antisemitic but his base won’t care because they never have before and they aren’t about to start now.

• Winner: Netanyahu

The Jabs

Joe Biden: Biden will remind voters that Trump is a 34 times convicted felon, that he has three more criminal trials pending, but most of all, that even his own former Vice President and the majority of his former cabinet do not support him.

Donald Trump: Trump will claim to voters that Biden is behind his allegedly political prosecution, that Biden is somehow responsible for his grown son Hunter’s felony convictions, and that Biden is old.

I don’t believe either jab will flip voters, but will largely serve to reinforce each side’s voter base and win emotional validation points that their respective candidate is a fighter.

The Glaring Absences

Universal Healthcare: While I believe the moderators will bring up healthcare, neither candidate will commit to universal healthcare as a human right. This, even though studies show that a guaranteed universal healthcare model will save Americans $450B annually while preventing 68,000 annual deaths. Sadly, Big Healthcare money in politics is too strong to let that happen.

Money in Politics: Speaking of money, neither candidate will discuss meaningful reform of our broken political system—one in which dark money PACs and foreign government lobbyists can spend tens of millions of dollars to thwart the will of the American people. Despite more than 90% of Americans demanding an end to corporate money in politics, this will be an ignored topic.

Israeli War Crimes: Undoubtedly the topic of Palestine and Israel will come up. Undoubtedly Hamas will be condemned. Undoubtedly Trump will use it as an additional opportunity to tout his xenophobic and ineffective Muslim ban. But there will be no discussion of how the International Court of Justice, the International Criminal Court, the United Nations, and the US State Department all agree in full or at least in part that Israel has violated international law, is committing war crimes, is exterminating Palestinians, and is committing genocide. Instead, Trump might criticize Biden for not embracing Netanyahu or personally inviting him to address Congress.

Housing Exploitation: Zillow recently reported that the average American needs to earn 80% more now than just 4 years ago to afford the same size house. Private equity corporations are buying up houses by the masses, buying off politicians to look the other way, and the American people are suffering. We need meaningful housing reform, and sadly, neither candidate will discuss this topic during the debate.

Racial and Social Injustice: Whether its the repeal of Affirmative Action, the hundreds of proposed and passed laws banning DEI, CRT, and books by Black, minority, and LGBTQ authors, or anti-Trans legislation, it seems unlikely that this debate will cover these issues in any meaningful way.

Climate Change: Biden has made major investments in combatting climate change (while also making major anti-climate decisions on fossil fuels) and Trump is a climate denier. That said, I’d be surprised to see a thorough debate beyond a passing mention.

Gun Violence: As important as this topic is, I’d be surprised to see a thorough debate beyond a passing mention.

In Conclusion

I’m hopeful that my assumptions about the glaring absences are all wrong, and the debate exemplifies a robust dialogue about them. My overall assessment is that Joe Biden will win this debate if he sticks to facts, stays on the attack, and owns up to his shortcomings and failures. Given that the next debate is not until September, and given that most polls have Biden and Trump within the margin of error of each other, a Biden loss or underperformance could be extremely harmful for his overall campaign.

Comment below on what I missed? The debate is scheduled for 9pm EST today June 27, 2024. Be sure to tune in, and subscribe below for my post debate analysis.